Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.446688 2.603293 2.775433 2.980947 3.222822 3.502804 3.858382
2025-05-25 2.266225 2.461207 2.686029 2.970252 3.329423 3.783370 4.430197
2025-06-01 2.138026 2.353954 2.611197 2.950052 3.402168 4.016604 4.989989
2025-06-08 2.036756 2.265306 2.544375 2.923989 3.453565 4.220512 5.566815
2025-06-15 1.978966 2.222786 2.527804 2.956498 3.583527 4.559403 6.509923
2025-06-22 1.875581 2.115123 2.417796 2.849089 3.493046 4.528813 6.738341
2025-06-29 1.823982 2.069798 2.385296 2.844846 3.554511 4.761928 7.669795
2025-07-06 1.754450 1.997252 2.311404 2.774283 3.502133 4.779994 8.095204
2025-07-13 1.732924 1.985858 2.318688 2.821251 3.643411 5.194806 10.080752
2025-07-20 1.727094 1.994327 2.352949 2.910543 3.868837 5.861681 14.644952
2025-07-27 1.695514 1.966305 2.333791 2.914996 3.944099 6.224106 19.782945
2025-08-03 1.669994 1.945186 2.322943 2.931078 4.042760 6.689986 32.943821
2025-08-10 1.618972 1.888601 2.260194 2.862138 3.975139 6.698193 42.963016
2025-08-17 1.586931 1.857035 2.232375 2.848407 4.015651 7.049049 235.268190
2025-08-24 1.555394 1.824916 2.202068 2.828022 4.039572 7.367617 NaN
2025-08-31 1.524829 1.793045 2.170607 2.803287 4.050913 7.657744 NaN
2025-09-07 1.510147 1.782852 2.170842 2.832436 4.183177 8.508540 NaN
2025-09-14 1.464477 1.727371 2.100495 2.734194 4.017575 8.027025 NaN
2025-09-21 1.444416 1.707839 2.084156 2.730201 4.067492 8.540110 NaN
2025-09-28 1.410508 1.667680 2.035026 2.665555 3.970242 8.328575 NaN
2025-10-05 1.404229 1.666835 2.045980 2.708538 4.131720 9.534488 NaN
2025-10-12 1.406817 1.678709 2.076927 2.790087 4.405837 12.011205 NaN
2025-10-19 1.391959 1.664699 2.066620 2.794140 4.482587 13.392762 NaN